{"asof":"2026-09-30","attribution":"Source: Daall Index (index.daall.sa)","licence":"Free to use with attribution","generated":"2026-10-29","data":{"asof":"2026-10-29","registered":"2026-10-29","note":"Four tests registered in advance (lab/PREREGISTRATION.md, committed before any result was computed). Every result is published as it came out. An award counts from award date + 30 days, or from the day our collector first saw it for awards dated from 30 Jul 2026. Sources: Etimad awards; issuer revenue from quarterly statements (stockanalysis.com, cross-checked with Yahoo Finance); prices from Yahoo Finance; MoF quarterly budget performance reports.","tests":[{"id":"T1","title":"Contracted backlog and listed issuers' revenue","question":"When an issuer's expected government revenue from Etimad awards rises, does its reported revenue rise with it?","target":"Quarterly revenue of Tadawul and Nomu issuers matched to Etimad awards","data":"895 firm-quarters, 101 issuers, 2022Q2 to 2026Q3","horizon":"Same quarter, year-on-year change","criterion":"Spearman correlation > 0 and the 95% issuer-clustered bootstrap interval excludes 0","result":{"metric":"Spearman correlation","value":0.04,"n":895,"verdict":"fail"},"detail":"Correlation +0.040 (95% interval -0.043 to +0.121). Issuers whose expected government revenue is at least 20% of trailing revenue: +0.072 (95% interval -0.136 to +0.286, 123 firm-quarters, 25 issuers). Backlog built from 5,190 awards to 108 issuers; 1,961 awards had no stated duration and took their award type's median.","table":{"cols":["Sample","Correlation","95% interval","Firm-quarters","Issuers"],"rows":[["All matched issuers","+0.040","-0.043 to +0.121",895,101],["Government share ≥ 20%","+0.072","-0.136 to +0.286",123,25]]}},{"id":"T2","title":"Large awards and the share price","question":"Do shares of an issuer outperform the market after it wins an award worth at least 1% of its market value?","target":"Daily share price relative to TASI","data":"213 events, 36 issuers; 2,512 matched awards in all","horizon":"Trading days 0 to +10 from the day the award could be known","criterion":"Mean market-adjusted return > 0 and the 95% interval (bootstrap over event dates) excludes 0","result":{"metric":"Mean abnormal return, days 0 to +10","value":0.00169,"n":213,"verdict":"fail"},"detail":"Mean +0.17%, median -0.56%, 95% interval -1.00% to +1.28%. Placebo (awards under 0.1% of market value): mean +0.58%, 95% interval +0.17% to +0.99%, 1,788 events.","table":{"cols":["Events","Mean","Median","95% interval","n"],"rows":[["≥ 1% of market value","+0.17%","-0.56%","-1.00% to +1.28%",213],["< 0.1% (placebo)","+0.58%","+0.00%","+0.17% to +0.99%",1788]]}},{"id":"T3","title":"Award value and government spending","question":"Does year-on-year growth in award value lead growth in the Ministry of Finance's spending on goods, services and capital assets?","target":"MoF quarterly budget performance: use of goods and services plus non-financial assets (first published figures)","data":"MoF quarters 2019Q1 to 2026Q2","horizon":"Awards lead spending by 1 to 4 quarters","criterion":"At least one lag with correlation > 0 and p < 0.0125 (Bonferroni over four lags)","result":{"metric":"Best lag correlation","value":0.4851,"n":17,"verdict":"fail"},"detail":"About 20 quarterly observations give this test little power: a fail means a lead was not shown, not that there is none. Award growth from 2021 only: Etimad award publication was partial in 2020.","table":{"cols":["Lead (quarters)","Correlation","p-value","Quarters"],"rows":[[1,"+0.485","0.0484",17],[2,"+0.170","0.5281",16],[3,"+0.399","0.1410",15],[4,"+0.408","0.1480",14]]}},{"id":"T4","title":"Coverage of the award record","question":"How much of the government's spending on goods, services and capital assets passes through published Etimad awards?","target":"MoF annual use of goods and services plus non-financial assets","data":"Calendar years with four published MoF quarters","horizon":"Same year","criterion":"Descriptive: ratio per year and its coefficient of variation; no pass or fail","result":{"metric":"Coefficient of variation of the ratio, 2022 on","value":0.0262,"n":5,"verdict":"descriptive"},"detail":"Award values include VAT and are commitments, often spread over several years; MoF figures are cash outlays. The ratio is a scale check, not a coverage share in the strict sense. By quarter it fell to 0.155 in 2026 Q1 and 0.101 in 2026 Q2, against 0.28-0.31 and 0.19-0.22 in the same quarters of 2024-2025, while MoF spending rose; recorded 2026 awards are probably incomplete (under review), which is why recent index levels are provisional.","table":{"cols":["Year","Awards, SAR bn","MoF goods, services and capex, SAR bn","Ratio"],"rows":[["2021",37.9,321.9,"0.12"],["2022",83.6,401.6,"0.21"],["2023",105.0,489.9,"0.21"],["2024",108.8,503.7,"0.22"],["2025",98.0,484.9,"0.20"]]}}]}}